It was two months in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side that have just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened in London, and once more versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
